Should You Book Christmas Flights to Europe Now or Wait for Awards?
With Christmas flights to Europe costing $2,000 each in economy, travelers face a tough choice. Should you book now or gamble on award space?
- Research which airlines have the best availability for your desired route.
- Check the redemption charts to see how many points are required for your flight.
- Consider the potential for devaluation in the future, which could affect your points’ value.
With economy flights to Europe hitting $2,000 each for the Christmas season, travelers are left with a pressing question: should you book now or gamble on the hope of finding award space?
What Does This Price Spike Mean for Travelers?
The surge in airfare during the holiday season is not uncommon, but it does present a significant challenge for points travelers. With prices soaring, the value of points and miles becomes even more critical. If you were planning to use cash for a ticket, the $2,000 price tag might push you to reconsider your strategy.
For many, this situation highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of award travel. The current high cash prices can make redeeming points more appealing, especially if you can find availability at a lower cost than the cash fare. However, the risk of waiting for award space is that it may not materialize, leaving you scrambling for last-minute options.
Is It Worth Transferring Points Now?
Before making any decisions, consider the transfer options available to you. If you have flexible points, such as those from credit cards, you can often transfer them to airline partners. This flexibility can be a game changer, especially during peak travel times when airlines may release award seats closer to departure dates.
However, be cautious. Transferring points typically requires a specific strategy:
- Research which airlines have the best availability for your desired route.
- Check the redemption charts to see how many points are required for your flight.
- Consider the potential for devaluation in the future, which could affect your points’ value.
What Are the Best Award Sweet Spots for Christmas Travel?
When looking for award availability, certain airlines and routes tend to offer better redemption opportunities. For example, airlines like Lufthansa and United often have competitive award pricing for transatlantic flights, especially if you can book in advance.
To maximize your chances of finding a sweet spot, consider the following:
- Utilize tools like the award redemption charts to identify the best value redemptions.
- Be flexible with your travel dates; flying mid-week can often yield better availability.
- Look for partner airlines that may offer lower redemption rates for the same flights.
How to Calculate the Trade-Off Between Cash and Points?
When weighing whether to book a cash ticket or wait for award space, it’s essential to do the math. Here’s a simple framework to help you evaluate your options:
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| Option | Cost | Points Required | Value per Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Ticket | $2,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Award Ticket | Varies | 50,000 | 4 cents |
In this example, if you can redeem 50,000 points for a flight that costs $2,000, you’re getting a value of 4 cents per point, which is excellent. However, if the award ticket requires 100,000 points, the value drops to 2 cents per point, which may not be worth it compared to paying cash.
What Are the Risks of Waiting for Award Space?
While the allure of potentially saving money by waiting for award space is tempting, there are inherent risks. Award availability can be unpredictable, especially during peak travel times like Christmas. Here are some risks to consider:
- Limited availability: Airlines may not release enough seats for award travel, especially as the travel date approaches.
- Increased competition: Other travelers are likely eyeing the same award seats, making it harder to secure a booking.
- Last-minute cash prices: If you wait too long and can’t find an award seat, you may end up paying even more for a last-minute cash ticket.
Frequently asked questions
Should I book my Christmas flight now or wait for awards?
If you find a reasonable cash fare, it may be wise to book now rather than risk not finding an award seat later.
How can I find the best award availability?
Use tools like the transfer-partner explorer to identify which airlines have the best availability for your desired route.
What should I do if I can’t find award space?
If award space is unavailable, consider booking a cash ticket to secure your travel plans, especially during peak seasons.
How do I calculate the value of my points?
Divide the cash price of the ticket by the number of points required to find the value per point, helping you determine if the redemption is worth it.
About the author
Published
Zoheb Alvi covers points strategies, fare deals, and travel optimization for the Pointify blog.
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